by @thetrendbettor

Richmond $1.14 v Fremantle $6.50 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line -38.5, Total 167.5

Richmond are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS & Over in 2018

Fremantle are 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 1-5 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Richmond are 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches against Fremantle

  • 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS at the MCG

• When these two teams meet, the away team is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS since 2014

• Richmond are 17-2 SU, 16-3 ATS at the MCG since the start of 2017

• Fremantle are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches at the MCG

• Over is 4-2 in the last 6 meetings between the two sides

Comments:

Richmond are flying at the moment and are showing absolutely no signs of a premiership hangover. Last week they beat the Pies by 7 goals, even though Collingwood seemed to be in the game for the majority of it, it goes to show just how good Richmond are and how well they finish. They’re up against a Dockers side that are playing decent footy at the moment, and are 4-2 ATS in 2018. Richmond ATS at the MCG is one of the safest bets in footy at the moment, but Fremantle’s record at the ground is discouraging me. No bet.

Unofficial recommended bet: Richmond -38.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

St Kilda $3.20 v Melbourne $1.40 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +18.5, Total 164.5

St Kilda are 1-4-1 SU, 2-4 ATS, 0-6 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 3-3 SU & ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Melbourne are 2-0 SU & ATS in their last 2 matches against St Kilda

• Melbourne are 4-1 SU & ATS in their last 5 matches at Etihad Stadium

• St Kilda are 1-2-1 SU, 2-2 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

• St Kilda have the worst goal scoring conversion in the league.

  • Average 8.7 goals, 12.7 behinds (40.65%)

• St Kilda have scored at least 11 behinds in each match this season

Comments:

Melbourne should win this one, but how many times have we heard that and they end up letting us (and themselves) down. I’m steering clear from picking the winner here, but I believe I’ve found an absolute steal of a prop bet here.

Recommended Bet: 3u St Kilda to score over 9.5 behinds @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Brisbane $3.40 v Collingwood $1.35 – GABBA

Sunday Twilight, Line +20.5, Total 168.5

Brisbane are 0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS, 1-5 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Brisbane are 0-3 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches at the GABBA

• Collingwood are 9-8 SU, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 matches interstate

  • 3-0 SU & ATS as favourites

• Collingwood are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS against the Lions since 2011

  • 4-0 SU & ATS at the GABBA

Comments:

Collingwood seem to have turned it around after their round 1 loss against the Hawks, not only on the ladder, but they have managed to cover 4 of the last 5 lines. If there is ever a thing as a respectable 7 goal loss, we saw it last week when the Pies lost to the Tigers, and they showed enough to make me think they will bounce back in a fixture they have been successful in, in recent years.

Recommended Bet: 1u Collingwood -20.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)