by @thetrendbettor

Western Bulldogs $1.18 v Gold Coast Suns $6 – Mars Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -34.5, Total 164.5

Bulldogs are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

Suns are 3-3 SU & ATS, 1-5 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Bulldogs are 0-1 SU & ATS in Ballarat

• Suns are 4-35 SU, 12-27 ATS in their last 39 interstate matches

• Suns are 1-42 SU, 16-27 ATS in interstate matches as 30+ point underdogs

Comment: Having this game played in Ballarat (where there has only ever been one previous AFL match) makes looking for trends quite hard to find, but the Suns have only won once in their club history as 30+ point underdogs in matches played interstate. The only such time was in their debut season in 2011. On top of that, the Suns also lost their co-captains Tom Lynch and Steven May due to injuries, so I have no doubt that the Dogs win this one.

Jack Macrae is having some year, racking up 30+ disposals in 5 of his 6 matches this season, and I expect him to amass that again as the Dogs run rampant.

Recommended Bet: 1u – Jack Macrae 30+ disposals & Bulldogs win @ $1.95 (William Hill)

Essendon $2.55 v Hawthorn $1.60 – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line +10.5, Total 175.5

Bombers are 2-4 SU & ATS & Over in 2018

Hawks are 4-2 SU & ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Essendon are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 matches against Hawthorn

• “Over” is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams

• Essendon are 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS in their last 9 matches at the MCG

• Hawthorn are 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS in their last 12 matches at the MCG

• 1^st quarters are Essendon’s best quarter in 2018. 3-3 108.66%

• 1^st quarters are Hawthorn’s worst quarter in 2018. 3-3 79.65%

• Hawthorn have outscored opponents 307-202, 152% in 2018

Comment: Despite all of the preseason hype, Essendon have showed very little in 2018. With only two wins, I think it’s fair to say that they have only played a couple of good quarters of footy. It was well documented that the Bombers players were told to bring their mouth guards and expect some contested footy training during the week, so they should be fired up against their biggest rival in Hawthorn. I expect Essendon to come out firing, but class will eventually prevail as Hawthorn run away with it in the second half – something they have done numerous times this year already.

Recommended Bets:

• 2u Hawthorn 2^nd half -5.5 @ $1.89 (Bet365)

• 1u Essendon lead at QT, Lose FT @ $5 (Sportsbet)

West Coast $1.75 v Port Adelaide $2.22 – Optus Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -5.5, Total 171.5

Eagles are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 Over

Port are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 Over

Key Trends:

• West Coast are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS against Port Adelaide under Adam Simpson

• Away teams are 9-3 SU, 10-2 ATS between these two teams since 2010

  • 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS since 2014

• Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two sides

• Only 2 of the 12 meetings between these two sides have been decided by more the 4 goals

• Port are 5-2 SU & ATS in their last 7 interstate trips

Comments:

The fact that it is played in Perth should hold no weight in the decision you are trying to make when figuring out who will win this one, in fact, it could even have the opposite effect as the away side have won the last 6 times when these two teams have played. I’m steering clear of choosing an outright winner in this one, because I think this one will be close.

Recommended Bet: 3u Either team by under 24.5 points @ $1.72 @ (Sportsbet)

Sydney $1.20 v North Melbourne $5.15 – SCG

Saturday Night, Line -29.5, Total 166.5

Sydney are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

North are 3-3 SU & ATS, 1-5 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Under is 7-1 in the last 8 night matches at the SCG

• North have conceded the 2^nd least points in the AFL in 2018

• Sydney are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches against North Melbourne

• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings against the two sides

Comments:

The SCG is traditionally a good ground to back the “unders” on – especially in night matches – and this week should be no difference as North Melbourne matches have gone “under” in 5 of the first 6 games this season, and have conceded the second least points in the AFL this season so far.

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 166.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet/Bet365)

Adelaide $1.05 v Carlton $15 – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Night, Line -56.5, Total 168.5

Crows are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

Blues are 06 SU, 2-4 ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Adelaide are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS in their last 3 matches against Carlton

  • The two teams have never met at Adelaide Oval

• Carlton are 0-2 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval. Average losing margin – 96.5

  • Both games were against Port

• Carlton are 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS in interstate matches under Brendon Bolton

• Adelaide are 5-0 SU & ATS in their last 5 home matches as 55+ point

• Rory Laird has gotten 30+ disposals in every game this season

Comments:

I have no doubt that Adelaide will win this match, it’s just going to be a matter of how much. Rory Laird has gotten 30+ disposals in all of his matches this year so far, and has failed to get over 30 just once. This player prop is too much value to pass up.

Recommended Bet:

• 1u Laird o30.5 disposals & Adelaide win @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)

• 1u Adelaide -55.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)