Round 7: Bets 6, units staked 7.5, +2.05 units profit
2019: Bets 60, units staked 66, +22.8 units profit at 38% ROI
We got back to winning ways in round 7 mainly thanks to the Bulldogs beating Richmond. We got on at +23.5 and the line was into +14.5 by first bounce.
We have lots of bets in round 8 but nothing in the Bombers game against the Swans on Friday with our first bet coming in the Carlton vs Collingwood match on Saturday at the MCG.
Carlton trailed by 32 points at quarter time and 53 points at half time in their round 7 loss to North and they cannot afford to start slowly against the fast starting Pies who have led at quarter time in all 7 of their games in 2019 at an average of 19 points. They have led by 45, 28 and 29 in their last three opening terms. Sportsbet are -10.5 1Q line if that tickles your fancy.
I’m hoping the terrible start the Blues made against North will fire them up for Saturday and I like them at the plus.
0.5 units Carlton at $10 on Betfair and 1.5 units +46.5 at $1.90 with several books
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane looks hard to call and our line of Bulldogs by 5 is too close to the 7.5 Lions on offer. As always we’ll watch for any big market moves and bet accordingly.
The Suns were down by 39 points to West Coast at half time in Perth in round 7 so did very well to keep the final margin to 23. In previous years they would have capitulated to a 10+ goal defeat. Melbourne finally showed a bit of fight to beat the Hawks last week and they may well kick on from here but we’ll be with the Suns who’ve already done us a few favours in 2019.
Our line is 13 points to the Dees so we’ll take 1 unit on the Suns at $3.3 and 1.5 units +20.5 with Topsport.
The Saints were 17.5 point underdogs yesterday against West Coast but predictably that got snapped up by early value seekers but there is still juice in the current line of 11.5 with Beteasy and we’ll have 2 units at $1.91 and a single unit on the Saints to win at $2.60 with bet365 or $2.55 with Betfair or Beteasy.
Port were on the receiving end of a fast start by the Pies in round 7 but I like them to bounce back against the Crows in their local derby. We actually make Port slight favourites to win this so will go with 2 units +4.5 at $1.91 with Beteasy.
We have Geelong as close to five goal favourites against North Melbourne so with the line set at 20.5 and not wanting to back the minus we’ll have a single unit on Geelong 40+ at $3.25 with Beteasy.
Our last bet of the round is on Hawthorn to beat GWS at the MCG on Sunday. We have GWS as 9 point favourites so a unit at $2.8 with Beteasy and 1.5 units +15.5 at $1.91 with the same firm will do us.