Friday night sees the Swans host the Pies at Sydney Cricket Ground and we’re sticking with the total points market for some value here.
The line is 188.5 and i wouldn’t put anyone off backing the unders with my adjusted figure for night time SCG games of 176. I might even back it myself between now and first bounce.
The market i’m suggesting a bet in however is the 1st half total points where bet365 (and others) have the line at 91.5.
Dry Swans night matches at SCG have gone 4/9 to the under at H/T since 2014
The average total at half time was 79.5
Fourteen of the 18 games in the 2017 season have gone over the total points line and this has undoubtedly pushed all lines up by a few points. My take on this is that we should ignore this trend and continue to back the unders where the numbers say we should. My guess is that after 6 rounds we will be back to something like a 50/50 over/under split.