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AFL: Sydney vs Hawthorn
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Friday night sees the Hawks travel north to the Sydney Cricket Ground to take on the resurgent Swans in the second game of round 10 after last night’s nail biter at Simonds stadium where Geelong kept up their awesome winning record yet their opponents Port Adelaide also kept up their impressive record of covering the spread in night games away from Adelaide Oval. In hindsight the trends bet was to back the Cats to win by 1 – 4 points. Hindsight eh? 




Sydney vs Hawthorn is a tricky match to assess from a trends perspective as Hawthorn are simply not the team they were, or certainly haven’t been in the opening nine rounds. But…the Swans were pretty damned awful too in the opening half a dozen games so its possible the Hawks will click into gear at some point.



Sydney at the SCG at night since 2014

  • 11/4 straight up

  • 6/9 ATS

  • 7/8 over/under

Sydney at the SCG at night since 2014

  • 7/4 straight up

  • 4/7 ATS

  • 6/5 over/under

Sydney at the SCG at night since 2016

  • 3/3 straight up

  • 3/3 ATS

  • 2/4 over/under


So despite Sydney’s overall dominance at the SCG – they are 8/2 s/u and 7/3 ats since 2016 – their ATS record in night games is poor. 






Hawthorn away from the MCG since 2014

  • 14/8 straight up

  • 13/9 ATS

  • 12/10 over/under

Hawthorn away from the MCG since 2015

  • 12/4 straight up

  • 12/4 ATS

  • 8/8 over/under

Hawthorn away from the MCG since 2016

  • 5/1 straight up

  • 5/1 ATS

  • 1/5 over/under



Hawthorn have an excellent record of both winning games and covering the spread away from the MCG.






Currently the Hawks are priced at $6.0 with bet365 to win tonight. In the 85 games since the start of 2014 the biggest odds they’ve ever been is $2.91. That’s some difference!

It’s undeniable that the Hawks have been poor, and that they have a number of injuries but it’s also true that the Swans were pretty bad until a couple of weeks ago and at the odds I have to be with Hawthorn for the shock.

1 unit Hawthorn at $6.0 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

2 units Hawthorn +39.5 at $1.98 with 


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