by @betdetective

We are a few games into the 2018/19 English Premier League and Football League seasons and after much number crunching between the World Cup and now I feel ready to dip Oddy’s toes into the waters which have brought followers so much success in the past.

I have tweaked my trusty 10 yr old ratings system – it used my own version of xG (although not called that) successfully for many years – but now every man and his cat is using one version of it or another so while i’ll still utilise xG figures i’ve added a few more variables and the back testing i’ve done suggests we can get between 5% and 10% over a full season. We can’t all get 20%+ like our good friend @thetrendbettor 🙂

I’ve quoted prices from Bet365 and Matchbook but you should be able to match or get very close to those odds elsewhere

English Premier League

0.3 units Huddersfield (vs Everton) at $8.35 with Matchbook

1 unit Huddersfield +1  at $2.01 with bet365

0.5 units Burnley (vs Man Utd) at $6 with bet365

1 unit Burnley +0.5 at $2.34 with Matchbook

English Championship

0.5 units Swansea (vs Millwall) at $3.76 with Matchbook

1 unit Swansea +0.25 at $2.04 with bet365

1.5 units Brentford (vs Notts Forest) at $1.83 with bet365

League 1

1 unit Wycombe (vs Luton) at $3.3 with bet365

1 unit Peterboro (vs Doncaster) at $2.3 with bet365

League 2

1 unit Oldham (vs Crawley) at $2.25 with bet365

1 unit MKDONS (vs Swindon) at $2.45 with bet365

1 unit Forest Green 0 hcp (draw no bet) vs Notts Co at $2.15 with bet365