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English Football League Picks 04/09/16
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by @bparkprophecies




Last week we wrote about the lack of form and perspective on which to judge teams this early in the season, and so it was yet again. We recommended Bury to win at Walsall and they promptly went 3 nil down, only to come back to draw 3-3. Not much good to us, but it proved the point. Things will begin to take more shape in the coming weeks with the transfer window now closed on the usual late flurry of business in a shambles of a marketplace. Even in the lower two divisions an incredible exchange of players has taken place, and loads of teams will be replete with new faces as they line up. Again, these are tricky games to assess. Who do you fancy in a match between a stable team in reasonable form  and one with three or four new faces who have played at a higher level – especially when you don’t yet know how many of these the lucky manager will put out on the pitch? Bolton Wanderers are an example of the latter, and the odds on them being beaten by Southend are generous indeed after the away side demolished Sheffield United a couple of weeks ago. Reluctantly but objectively, we resist them this time around, however. 



At least we get to catch our breath with the Championship this week, and a good thing too. It’ll take a week to read of all the transfers. One thing for certain is that it is getting more and more difficult for teams who have never competed in the Premier league to compete with those who have and failed, and been rewarded for their failure in the form of obscene parachute payments. There is something very distasteful about this (to this writer anyway; a supporter of one of the relatively poorer clubs among them).



To this weekend then, and in League 1 and League 2 we like these aways:

AFC Wimbledon Chesterfield   $3.29 at Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18
Bury Port Vale  $3.45 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18
Millwal Bradford  $3.62 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53
Oldham A Shrewsbury $3.40 with 

Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

L2: Colchester Exeter $3.75 with

Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

Chesterfield’s strike force looks too good to resist against a newly promoted team, while Millwall are suffering from a number of absentees for a number of reasons against an effective Bradford outfit. Oldham’s results so far flatter them, to my mind. 



Sheffield United at Gillingham are a bet at $3.10 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

In League 2, we’ll have Exeter City at Colchester at $3.6. The home side have been pretty handy on their own turf so far, but the Ex men often shape up better away from home than they do at home, and they might just enjoy this one. 

Good luck folks.

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