This weekend presents us with a right old conundrum. We usually look at each team’s performances in their last three games, wherever they were played, and then inspect their last few played at home or away according to where they’ll be next up.
Trouble now is that the last two matches were both played either at home or away by teams throughout these leagues. Given this, and that we’ve only had seven games in all, it is impossible to assess and distinguish teams’ form generally from the home and away.
Millwall, in league one for example have been superb in their last two games – both away – but were dreadful at home in the one before that, which is where they play today. What do you make of that? Neither do I.
A usual rule of thumb in making selections is that if I can’t separate the strength of two teams and likelihood of the outcome, then the three possible outcomes must be about equal ie $3. When that’s the case and one team is greater than $3, then they get backed (because the price makes them less than a one in three chance, which I rate them as having, you get it). There are loads like that this week, but this time I’m the blind man looking in a coal cellar for a black cat that isn’t there – the usual conditions for assessment are the black cat. Such impotent groping eventually resulted in these bets in grubby hands: