The Pick: Under 43.5 Total Points @ $1.97 (Pinnacle)
The Reason: Baltimore are ranked 32nd in offensive yards per play and 3rd in defensive yards per play, in other words, yards are hard to come by in matches involving Baltimore. I would’ve expected this total to be 40.5.
Patriots @ Bills
The Pick: Patriots win 1-13 @ $2.45 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Patriots are a remarkable 40-6 SU in their last 46 matches in December. I personally like betting on big underdogs in divisional matchups and with the line being 8.5, I’ll take the 4.5 buffer created by trying to middle it here.
Colts @ Jaguars
The Pick: Jaguars 1-13 @ $2.47 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: Similar to the reasoning for picking the Patriots 1-13, I expect the Jags to win straight up, but the fact that big underdogs in divisional matchups do well against the spread, I’m going to try and middle it here and buy another few points by choosing the 1-13 margin.
Chiefs @ Jets
The Pick: Over 43.5 Total Points @ $1.90 (Bet365)
The Reason: Over is 4-1 in the last 5 Jets matches and the Jets have averaged 24 team points in their last 6 home matches. Over is 6-3 in the last 9 Chiefs matches on the road. Despite the fact that the Chiefs have completely plummeted in the last month, I expect them to score more than the 9.5 they’ve averaged in their last two matches.
Texans @ Titans
The Pick: Titans win 1-13 @ $2.41 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: When you look at who the Titans have beaten in their first 5 wins – Colts, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, and Colts again – it is easy to realise that the Titans beat mediocre teams, and the Texans fall under that bracket. The titans won by over 4 points in only one of those matches, I expect this one to be close.
Buccaneers @ Packers
The Pick: Under 45.5 Total Points @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Packers have only averaged 11.33 points at home under Brett Hundley, and with this potentially being the coldest game that Jameis Winston has ever played in (not just in his professional career, I’m talking ever!), I find it hard to believe he will thrive in these conditions.
Panthers @ Saints
The Pick: Saints -4.5 @ $1.95 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: When the Saints are at home as a 0.500 or better team, they are 17-3-1 ATS. Coming off a loss, the Saints will be looking to turn things around here. The Saints are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home matches, winning by an average margin of 11.25.
Steelers @ Bengals
The Pick: Steelers win + Under 43.5 Points @ $2.75 (Crownbet)
The Steelers have won their last 5 against the Bengals, and are an amazing 14-1 SU in their last 15 December matches, and have won their last 10 matches under lights… WOW! I’m combining this with the stat that under has prevailed in 12 of the last 15 AFC North matchups that do not include the Cleveland Browns. Combing these two trends gives great value!