Some of you will know that I used to post my ratings and bets on firstly the Betfair Forum and then on a blog: https://thebetdetective.wordpress.com.
I initially concentrated on the Championship and then added L1, L2, the Conference and the A League.
This year I am focussing on the National League (formerly the Conference) and may get involved with the A League again when that kicks off.
I rate each home and away team for each match concentrating on ‘attacking stats’ i.e. goals, shots, shots on target & corners with varying coefficients for each statistic. The average of these match ratings produce a home and away rating for each team.
The National League season is only 5 matches old so the ratings are immature to say the least. I generally wait until each team has played 5 or 6 home and the same number of away games before investing any serious funds.
That said, the ratings are still worth a look and the numbers are a good guide to teams that are getting results without performing that well and vice versa.
A good example from the ratings below is Forest Green.
Forest Green have played 5 won 5 and were one of the favourites to win this league at the outset after finishing 5th last season.
The average away rating so far this season is 12.8 but Forest Green’s rating is just 8.94. Let’s look at their numbers to see why the rating is so low considering they won both games 1-0.
Forest Green had 9 shots away at Altrincham and 13 corners, both above the league averages of 8.2 and 4.5. Their match rating of 11.38 is held down by the fact that they only managed a single shot on target.
In their win against Boreham Wood they had 4 shots with 2 on target and 1 corner.
My conclusions from that brief analysis is that Forest Green were not lucky to beat Altrincham, their forwards were just a bit wayward, but they do appear fortunate to have beaten Boreham Wood.
Forest Green’s opponents are Kidderminster, who are yet to win a game.
Looking at Kidderminster’s two home defeats, they came against Grimsby and Wrexham, two of the favourites to win this division and the numbers suggest they were competitive in both games with 12 shots and 5 on target against Wrexham and 8 shots with 6 on target against Grimsby. They also look unlucky not to have gained more than a single point from their 3 away games as they have averaged 11 shots (average all teams: 8.2) with 5.3 on target (average all teams: 3.3).
Even considering that Kidderminster have 4 of their best 5 defenders injured (according to the local paper in Kidderminster) they still look worth a tentative interest (half a unit) at the current best odds of $4.25 with
Other teams that look worth a second look on the bare ratings are Altrincham at $4.75, Lincoln at $4 and Dover (our ante post bet) at $2.6. I’m not going to suggest a bet on these teams but i’ll probably end up backing them to small stakes myself.
National League Ratings 29/8/15