After going 7-1 on official plays, and 8-1 on all recommended plays, hopefully we can continue this amazing start to the 2018 AFL season! I played it pretty safe last week by playing only 0.5 or 1 unit plays due to the fact that it was round 1 – a round that is usually unkind to most punters – but with 6 favourites covering the line, this year’s opening round was a lot kinder than most.
Round 2 is also usually a tricky one, as the public only have one round of footy to go by. A common tendency of the public is to bet on what ever happened in round 1 – in round 2.
A prime example of how much weight the average punter thinks round 1 statistics and that trends will be replicated in round 2, is illustrated…if you look very closely, or have a magnifying glass…in the table below:
One of the strongest round 1 trends in recent history is the consistent number of games hitting the “Over” in the total points market. Although last week the “Over” went 4-5, when you exclude the Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne game due to the fact that it was played in torrential rain, “Over” hit 4-4, and the average total points scored was 188.1 compared to the round 1 average “Over/Under” set by the bookmakers of 182.8. I know you can’t just pick and choose stats to strengthen your argument, but matches played in weather this poor forces teams to completely throw out their general game plan, and any data collated from matches like these considered as an outlier.
In the last 7 seasons, the “Over” is 41-22 in all round 1 matches, and although the public may not know the exact number, they have the understanding that round 1 is at least one of the highest scoring and most free flowing footy they will see all season… and they’re right. On average, Round 1 has been the 2nd highest scoring round (round 23 is the highest – the round where usually roughly half the teams have sweet stuff all to play for) since 2012.
What do the bookmakers do the week after a high scoring round? They bump up the “Over/Under” total in round 2 – something they have done for 6 of the last 7 years (including this year). And what do the public tend to do the week after a high scoring week? They bet the “Over” regardless of what the bookmakers set it at. One of the best sayings in the sports wagering world is, “Average punters bet teams, great punters bet numbers”.
The “Over/Under” in this example, is the “team”. The average punters will back the “over” no matter what the number is in this situation, whereas the great punters will know that, on average, there has been a 4.9 total-points-scored decline from round 1 to 2 from 2012 to 2017 despite there being a 3.0 point increase in the average “Over/Under” set by the bookmakers.
By no means am I saying that I am a great punter, but hopefully I can pass on some knowledge and insight that will help you separate yourself from just the average punter, and ultimately do what we all want to do… beat the books!
Let’s get stuck into round 2!
Adelaide Crows $1.62 vs Richmond $2.30 – Adelaide Oval
Thursday Night, Line -8.5, Total 187.5
Under is 10-0 in the last 10 Thursday night matches involving a side travelling interstate
Under is 11-2* in the last 13 Thursday night matches
2* were both Richmond vs Carlton matches in round 1 (2017,2018)
Under is 17-5 in all Thursday/Friday night matches at Adelaide Oval, averaging 164.6 points
Under is 34-13 in all night matches at Adelaide Oval
Grand Final winners are 4-4 SU & ATS in the first Grand Final rematch since 2010
Richmond went 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS interstate in 2017
Adelaide were 10-3 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval in 2017
Adelaide are 3-2 SU & ATS against Richmond since 2014
Recommended Bet: 1.5u Total Points Scored – Under 187.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)
North Melbourne $3.20 v St Kilda $1.36 – Etihad Stadium
Friday Twilight, Line +18.5, Total 200.5
Saints are 19-7 SU, 16-10 ATS in their last 26 games at Etihad Stadium
12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS against Victorian sides
12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS as favourites
North are 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS in their last 19 games at Etihad Stadium
Saints are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against North Melbourne
Recommended Bet: 1u St Kilda -17.5 @ $1.90 (William Hill/Centrebet)
Carlton $1.47 v Gold Coast Suns $2.70 – Etihad Stadium
Saturday Afternoon, Line -13.5, Total 190.5
Carlton are 5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium under Brendon Bolton
3-2 SU & ATS against non-Victorian sides
Gold Coast are 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games at Etihad Stadium
Carlton are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 games against Gold Coast
Recommended Bet: (No official play): Gold Coast win @ $2.75 (Ladbrokes)
Collingwood $3.20 v GWS Giants $1.36 – MCG
Saturday Twilight, Line +20.5, Total 189.5
Collingwood are 4-1 SU & ATS against GWS
2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS at the MCG
GWS are 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS at the MCG
GWS have only scored over 100 once at the MCG (103 vs Melbourne, 2013)
Collingwood are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS in round 2 matches after losing round 1, under Nathan Buckley
Collingwood have conceded over 103 points just once in their last 11 games in Victoria against interstate sides. Collingwood are 6-4-1 SU, 6-5 ATS in that span
Recommended Play: 0.5u GWS team total points under 104.5 @ $1.85 (Bet365)
Brisbane Lions $3.20 vs Melbourne $1.36 – Gabba
Saturday Night, Line +18.5, Total 193.5
Brisbane are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS at the Gabba under Chris Fagan
Only beating 14th placed Fremantle, 16th Carlton, 17th Gold Coast
0-3 SU & ATS in night matches, losing average of 64 points
Melbourne are 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS in their last 8 away interstate matches
Melbourne are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS in their last 3 matches against Brisbane