ROUND OF 16
Monday 30th June 2014
Porto Alegre, Brazil
16/06/1982 Algeria 2-1 West Germany World Cup
01/01/1964 Algeria 1-0 West Germany Friendly
Weather: Cool, small chance of rain (20%)
Travel: 4 hour 30 minute flight & Three hour flight (Algeria)
Distance: 2656km (Germany) & 2125km (Algeria)
• Sami Khedira expected to be fit after missing the USA game through injury.
• No new injuries picked up so Joachim Low should have a fully fit squad to choose from.
• Muller continues to show great form leading the attack & Klose set to continue making sub appearances.
Unavailable Doubtful Returning
None None Khedira – CM – Injured
Germany came through the USA match with the win they needed to
top the group and avoiding any injuries to take into their 2nd round
They will be strengthened by the return of Sami Khedira, who returned to training after a knee ligament strain earlier this week but wasn’t risked in the final group game. However, the performance of Bastian Schweinsteiger means he may not come straight back into the side, with the Bayern Munich midfielder expected to keep his place.
Lukas Podolski started on the left side of an attacking front 3 but Mario Gotze is expected to replace him after starting the first two games, scoring against Ghana.
Hummels, Muller and Boateng all showed no ill effects from minor injuries picked up earlier in the tournament and will be fit to play.
Expected Team (4-2-3-1)
Tactical Keys to the Game:
Germany will be wary of the Algerians attacking threat, which they have shown in progressing from Group H. They have nimble players capable of running with the ball and with Germany playing 4 natural CB’s across the backline they are not expected to be the quickest when players run at them.
The movement of the attacking front three will be enough to cause Algeria a lot of problems. The 2 full backs were dragged out of position by Russia in their final game and Germany possess the quality to hurt them if they can move them around.
Germany retain the ball very well, keeping possession in all areas of the pitch. The entire team is comfortable on the ball and they should be able to work it forward beyond the Algerian midfield. They will find it hard to play their pressing game against the Germans.
Motivational Keys to the Game:
These two countries have history, with Algeria feeling cheated by supposed collusion between Austria and Germany at the 1982 World Cup. Joachim Low will try to downplay this but Germany must be wary of Algeria being fired up. 2014 FIFA World Cup Match
• Captain Bougherra 50-50 to return after missing final group game v Russia through injury.
• Coach Halilhodzic may switch from an attacking 4-2-3-1 to a more defensive 4-3-3.
• The mood in the camp is excellent after the team upset the odds to reach the last 16.
Unavailable Doubtful Returning
None Bougherra – CB – 50% Bougherra – CB – Injury
The camp is excellent after the team upset the odds to reach the last 16.
A settled Algeria team emerged in their final two group games, with
10 players starting in both games. Bougherra – the only player that
missed their final group game against Russia (1-1) after starting
against South Korea (4-2) – was an enforced absence because of
injury. Bougherra is rated 50-50 to be available for this match. If he is
fully fit, he will return to the team in place of Belkalem.
The one dilemma facing Halilhodzic is tactical. Against highly-regarded
opposition, he will be tempted to revert to the 4-3-3 he used in
Algeria’s opening group game against Belgium. Should that happen,
Brahimi or Djabou would be the main contenders to step down.
Yebda, Taider, Lacen and the versatile Mostefa would be the leading
candidates to be the third midfielder drafted in alongside Medjani and
Bentaleb in a bid to make the team more difficult to break down.
Germany are the shortest price of all 16 teams to reach the quarter-finals. By our rankings system, Algeria are the worst side left in the competition while only The Netherlands are rated higher than Germany.
To further stress the disparity between these two sides there has been just one World Cup knockout match since 1970 where there has been a bigger grading difference than the 31.7 points there is between Germany and Algeria – when Brazil beat USA 1-0 in the Last 16 in USA 94. There have been eight previous World Cup knockout matches where there have been at least 24 grading points between two teams and the higher-rated side has won all eight in 90 minutes with five victories by two clear goals and six W/W doubles.
Germany have recorded W/Ws in five of their last nine knockout matches. Furthermore, they won three of their last four knockouts with two W/Ws when they have been ranked more than 10 places above their opponents and all of the matches have had Over 2.5 Goals (three Over 5.5 Goals). Germany have also won 17 of their last 21 matches against teams ranked 21-40 and they’ve kept a first-half clean sheet in their last eight Internationals.
Despite being the lowest ranked team in their pool, Algeria qualified second in Group H thanks, largely, to an emphatic 4-2 win over South Korea. Although they are a very long price here there’s a case to be made that they remain overrated. Despite winning all three matches, Belgium led for a total of just 34 of the 270 minutes they played as they struggled in each game while Russia and South Korea massively underperformed in Brazil. The Desert Warriors have won just one of their last nine matches (against South Korea) and they’ve lost three of their four matches against top-five ranked sides since 1990.
This is Algeria’s first appearance in a Last 16 match at the World Cup so they are a bit of an unknown quantity. They’ve lost three of their last six African Cup of Nations knockout matches but all of those fixtures were against sides far inferior to Germany.
We expect Germany to progress through to a likely quarter-final with France at ease. Although it’s slightly shorter we prefer Germany to lead at half-time and win to them winning by two clear goals.
Tip: Germany HT/FT – $1.95 General