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World Cup: Netherlands v Chile

 

 

 

 

Netherlands Screenshot 2014-06-04 09.13.59

• Will be without Van Persie due to suspension, Lens likely to replace him.
• Should switch to a 4-3-3 after this worked well in the 2nd half against Australia. • Will want to win and top the group to avoid a potential last 16 clash with Brazil.

Unavailable

Van Persie – ST – Suspension

Team News

Doubtful

Martins Indi – CB – 10%

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-3-3)

Screenshot 2014-06-23 11.28.24

The Netherlands secured their passage into the next round via a combination of their own victory over Australia and Spain’s defeat to Chile. It means the game between Netherlands and Chile will be a decider to see who finishes top with the pressure slightly off both teams.

The Netherlands will be forced into a couple of tactical reshuffles through suspension and injury.

Robin van Persie will definitely be missing through suspension after picking up a booking against Australia to go with one he got against Spain. In truth he was lucky not to be sent off as he became frustrated. Jeremain Lens is the most likely candidate to replace him having come on in the last 2 matches but Klaas-Jan Huntelaar may finally see some game time.

Bruno Martins Indi suffered a concussion due to a robust Tim Cahill challenge and landing awkwardly. He is very unlikely to be risked against Chile. This may mean that Memphis Depay gets a start after getting a goal and an assist and the Netherlands start with the 4-3-3 they employed in the 2nd half.

While they may be tempted to rest some players having already qualified they will want to earn at least a draw to win the group and hopefully avoid Brazil.

Bench (from): Krul GK, Vorm GK, Verhaegh RB, Kongolo CB, Veltman CB, Martins Indi CB, Clasie CM/DM, Far CM/AM, Kuyt RW/ST, Wijnaldum AM/RW, Huntelaar ST

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   The likely change to a 4-3-3 should help the Netherlands play the ball in better areas of the pitch. After counter attacking extensively against Spain, they were confined to their own half for long periods of the 1st half against Australia and only the tactical switch allowed them to get out.
  •   The loss of Van Persie is a blow as he is a quality striker but Lens has impressed in the short cameo’s he has made. He will have to offer a similar skill set to Van Persie and lead the line.
  •   The Netherlands should be wary of Chile’s high pressing game, this is likely to affect Blind more than most as he likes time on the ball to show his quality and pick a pass.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

 Will want to win to avoid a clash with Brazil in the last 16. However winning the group will give them a game in tough conditions in Fortaleza with a lunchtime kick off, although this will still be preferable to playing the hosts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chile Screenshot 2014-06-04 09.31.15

• Vidal and Aranguiz missed Thursday training with knocks, yellow card away from suspension too, so may be rested. • A win to avoid a Round of 16 clash with Brazil may incentivise them to take this serious.
• Atmosphere around the team is extremely positive at present, and the win against Spain has only improved that.

Unavailable

None

Doubtful

Vidal – CM – 30% Aranguiz – CM – 30%

Returning

None

Expected Team (3-5-2)

Screenshot 2014-06-23 11.29.25

Team News

With qualification to the next round assured, there is a strong sense Jorge Sampaoli will rest both Arturo Vidal and Carlos Aranguiz for this game. The midfield pair missed training on Thursday – Vidal due to an Achilles problem and Aranguiz suffering from a knee problem. Additionally, given the fact that both are a booking away from suspension, means they are even more likely to be cautious with them.

That would mean two changes in central midfield. The first most likely option is Valdivia as he will take the more offensive role and look to connect the midfield with the front two. The other change is less certain. Gutierrez is tipped to be the one, although Carmona also has a chance to get the start.

Aside from those two changes, it appears they will keep the rest of the team that beat Spain and they will maintain the 3-5-2 formation also which worked extremely well.

Bench (from): Herrera GK, Toselli GK, Rojas CB, Albornoz LB/LM, Beausejour LB/LM, Fuenzalida RM, Vidal CM, Aranguiz CM, Carmona CM, Orellana RW, Paredes ST, Pinilla ST

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   Reverting to a 3-5-2 formation proved successful in a much improved defensive performance against Spain compared to the game against Australia. Their aerial weaknesses were not particularly tested however, although the Dutch may not be able to take advantage of that here neither.
  •   The form of both Vargas and Alexis Sanchez continues to be excellent and they are setting the tone for the rest of the team. Even without Valdivia supporting them against Spain, the team attacked well as a unit and supported them well, and they proved to be the first line of defence also. The pair are so key to this team and how they set up.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

  •   Confidence and motivation among the players as a unit and individually is extremely high at the moment. The players are receiving plenty of recognition with Alexis Sanchez, Isla, Medel and Bravo all being discussed as transfer targets for major European clubs.
  •   Despite potentially resting a couple of players, one would expect the team will still be motivated as one would expect they would like to avoid Brazil if at all possible in the Round of 16 which means a win is needed here as the Dutch have the better goal difference.

 

Group B – Game 3
Chile (7) v Netherlands (4), Monday 23rd June 17:00 BST

Chile and The Netherlands have already qualified for the knockout stages after both taking maximum points against Australia and, more surprisingly, Spain. It’s easy to think that both teams might rest players ahead of the Last 16 but winning Group B offers two massive advantages: 1) avoiding Brazil in the second round and 2) going into the ‘easier’ bottom-half of the draw. The Dutch are in prime position to finish top as a win or a draw will see them top the pool. They are as short as 1.50 to advance as group winners.

The Netherlands will have to face Chile without captain and key striker Robin van Persie. The Manchester United frontman was cautioned against Spain and Australia so misses this through suspension. He’ll be replaced by either Jeremain Lens or Klaas-Jan Huntelaar up top which will certainly diminish their attacking threat.

Chile will approach this game with great confidence after their 2-0 win over Spain. It’s likely that Jorge Sampaoli will rest Vidal and Aranguiz as neither is 100% and both are just one booking away from being suspended from a potential Last 16 clash with Brazil. They’ll miss the two midfielders but it’s their speed on the break with the front three of Valdivia, Vargas and Sanchez that has been most impressive so far this tournament and all three should start.

Chile have now scored at least twice in five of their last seven matches against top-10 ranked sides and they’ve also netted at least twice in 15 of their last 17 matches generally. Furthermore, The Netherlands have conceded in nine of their last 10 Finals matches – letting in two in three of their last four.

Since 1970, there have been just 15 final group stage matches where both sides had six points and although just one of the games has been drawn, 10 have had Under 2.5 Goals. This stat puts us off backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80 but we’re happy to take on the Dutch here, particularly as they struggled against Australia.

 

Recommendation:

Chile in the draw no bet market at $2.0 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

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